“Gold prices traded within a narrow range on Monday as investors awaited clarity on US trade policy and upcoming economic releases. Over the weekend, President Donald Trump signaled “flexibility” on reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2. The uncertainty surrounding the final shape of these measures could weigh on market sentiment, as rising trade tensions might challenge US economic stability and influence the Federal Reserve’s policy stance.
As such, attention shifts to this week’s GDP growth data after the central bank revised down its growth expectations. Should the data signal a slowdown, expectations of a looser monetary policy could rise, supporting gold and potentially pushing prices toward new highs. Conversely, a stronger-than-expected GDP print could lift US yields and reinforce a more hawkish Fed outlook, limiting gold’s upside.
Geopolitical factors also add to the complexity. While diplomatic efforts in Eastern Europe may dampen safe-haven demand, escalating tensions in the Middle East could offset this, helping gold find support and maintain its bullish bias.”