Key Takeaways
- Morgan Stanley analysts predict the U.S. will further raise taxes on imports from China and enact tariffs on specific products from Europe and Asia, but eventually ease duties on products from Canada and Mexico.
- This trajectory could cause tariff impacts to be concentrated in specific sectors, the analysts wrote.
- Automobile, footwear, and apparel importers may be in a particularly tough spot because raising prices may impact their demand, the analysts said.
Morgan Stanley mapped out how reciprocal tariffs slated to be announced Wednesday could impact various sectors, from car companies to footwear brands.
Analysts predict the U.S. will raise import taxes another 10% on goods from China and enact tariffs on specific products from Europe and Asia, including Vietnam, according to a note published Monday.
They anticipate an eventual easing of tariffs on products brought in from Mexico and Canada, which may concentrate the impact of import taxes in a few specific sectors, the analysts said.
“Although the precise path toward implementation is unclear, on both tariff levels, products, & geographies, one thing we can say with clarity: Tariffs are going higher, and companies should be prepared, to mitigate the effects,” the note said.
Automobile, footwear, and apparel importers may have the hardest time since they have limited ability to raise prices without depressing demand, the analysts said.
Here’s where the analysts expect to see the biggest impacts:
- Tariffs on automobiles and auto parts from Mexico and Canada would put cars out of reach for many consumers, curtailing demand, the analysts said. Profits may come under pressure at General Motors (GM), which sources 26% of its vehicles from Mexico, and Ford (F), which sources 17% of cars from the country, Morgan Stanley said. Other auto companies with unfavorable tariff exposure include Stellantis (STLA), BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, and Volkswagen.
- Potential tariffs on goods from Vietnam could impact footwear companies, as 34% of shoe imports were sourced from the country last year, Morgan Stanley said. Nike (NKE), Allbirds (BIRD), On Holding (ONON), and Skechers USA (SKX) may be particularly challenged by such tariffs, the analysts said.
- Tariffs may be tougher adjustment for retailers like Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO), Five Below (FIVE), Warby Parker (WRBY), Wayfair (W), and Dollar Tree (DLTR), the analysts said. Meanwhile, Bath & Body Works (BBWI) and Levi Strauss (LEVI) appear relatively insulated, the analysts said.
- China is still an epicenter of hardware production for tech devices like smartphones, tablets, computer monitors, and headphones, so tariffs could weigh on retailers like Best Buy (BBY), the note said.