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At the 100-day mark of his presidency, Donald Trump is back in a familiar place. His popularity is waning, as it was in his first term. And his policy agenda faces major obstacles, including legal challenges and legislative inaction.
Trump’s approval rating is currently 45%, on average, with a 52% disapproval rating. On the one hand, the president’s numbers are better than at this point in his first term. On the other, he is under water on every major issue, including the economy, where 42% of voters approve of his job performance and roughly 55% disapprove. Even immigration, once Trump’s lone bright spot, has become a political minefield for the president.
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And he’s lost ground with key demographics, most notably Hispanics, who were crucial to his win in the 2024 election. The president’s approval rating with them is falling faster than with voters overall.
Economy and trade
There’s still time for Trump to right the ship. His resolve on issues like tariffs has started to weaken in response to both corporate and popular backlash, although he has resisted calls to abandon them.
The key difference now is that the economy has become a political headwind, instead of the tailwind that it was in his first term. That’s bad news for a president whose party was already at risk of losing control of the House in next year’s midterms, and it ups the pressure on congressional Republicans to get something done ASAP.
Trade is the president’s one priority where he has far-reaching authority — but it is also his greatest potential vulnerability. The most painful effects of the tariffs that Trump enacted are not expected to set in until later this year. Plus, the administration is struggling to strike deals with major trading partners.
Immigration and government efficiency
Two of the president’s other big priorities continue to be mired in lawsuits: Immigration, where attempts to dramatically increase executive power on deportations have been rebuffed by the judiciary, including the Supreme Court. And shrinking the federal government.
Leading Trump adviser Elon Musk is stepping back from his role as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which so far claims to have saved $160 billion, though many of these savings have been called into question. The administration has shed 121,000 workers via firings and layoffs, and encouraged others to leave through voluntary buyouts, though reduction-in-force plans at federal agencies keep hitting legal roadblocks.
Tax and spending cuts
As always, the path to lasting achievements likely runs through Congress, where Republicans are struggling to reach an agreement on both the extension of Trump’s first-term tax cuts and the spending cuts to pay for them. Their deadline has already slipped, from Memorial Day to July 4. Trump needs them to get moving.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.
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