Stocks Jump After Milder-Than-Expected CPI Inflation Reading; Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq All Set New Records

What’s the Inflation Rate in October? We May Never Know

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics is likely to skip a month of data collection for the Consumer Price Index for the first time in its history because of the ongoing government shutdown.

The Consumer Price Index, a widely watched gauge of inflation, is unlikely to be released for October, the White House said on Friday. The CPI is based on prices collected by an army of surveyors, who are currently on furlough and not working because of the government shutdown.

“Because surveyors cannot deploy to the field, the White House has learned there will likely NOT be an inflation release next month for the first time in history—depriving policymakers and markets of critical data and risking economic calamity,” the White House said in a statement.

If October’s data collection is skipped, it would create a remarkable gap in a dataset that spans more than a century. The BLS first published data for a national Consumer Price Index in 1921, including estimates for the national inflation rate dating back to 1913.

The CPI report is one of many pieces of economic data going unreported as the government’s statistical agencies remain closed. Republican and Democratic lawmakers have voted down one another’s bills to fund the government amid a dispute over health care policy. The White House statement deepened concerns among economists that the government will have to skip many of the monthly economic reports scheduled for release in October.

Read the full article here.

–Diccon Hyatt

Deckers Stock Slumps as Hoka Maker Warns of Consumer Pullback Because of Tariffs, Higher Prices

48 minutes ago

Deckers Outdoor (DECK) shares plunged Friday after the shoe and apparel maker gave a weaker-than-expected outlook, saying it sees a pullback from consumers because of tariffs and rising prices.

The stock was down nearly 14% in recent trading. It’s lost more than half its value since the year began.

The company behind the Ugg and Hoka brands said it now anticipates full-year sales of about $5.35 billion, below the consensus of analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha.

CEO Stefano Caroti told investors during the company’s earnings call, “we are anticipating a more cautious consumer as the full impact of tariffs and price increases will be felt here in the U.S.,” according to a transcript provided by AlphaSense. CFO Steven Fasching said the headwinds from tariffs may be partially offset by the company’s mitigation strategies, which could include promotions to entice shoppers.

The downbeat outlook offset strong quarterly results. Deckers posted earnings per share of $1.82 for its fiscal second quarter on revenue that rose 9.1% year-over-year to $1.43 billion. Both figures topped analysts’ estimates, driven by strong sales of the company’s Ugg and Hoka brands.

Ugg sales surged 10.1% to $759.6 million, and Hoka sales grew 11.1% to $634.1 million. However, sales of other brands dropped 26.5% to $57.2 million.

–Bill McColl

Ford Stock Soars as Strong Results Outweigh Outlook Cut

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Investors were so thrilled by Ford Motor’s third-quarter results that they overlooked a guidance cut.

Ford (F) shares soared roughly 10% to pace the S&P 500 Friday morning after the “Big Three” automaker reported adjusted earnings of $0.45 per share on revenue that surged 9% year-over-year to $50.53 billion. Analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha had expected $0.34 and $46.33 billion, respectively.

However, Ford said it expects a full-year “adjusted EBIT headwind of $1.5 billion to $2 billion and an adjusted free cash flow headwind of about $2 billion to $3 billion in the fourth quarter due to the Novelis fire,” which shut down an aluminum supplier’s plant in Oswego, N.Y.

Because of the fire, Ford cuts its 2025 adjusted EBIT outlook to a range of $6 billion to $6.5 billion from the prior $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion, and adjusted free cash flow of $2 billion to $3 billion from the previous $3.5 billion to $4.5 billion.

“We are working intensively with Novelis and others to source aluminum that can be processed in the cold rolling section of the plant that remains operational while also working to restore overall plant production,” Ford CEO Jim Farley said. “We have made substantial progress in a short time to minimize the impact in 2025 and recover production in 2026.”

Ford shares have risen 37% this year.

Lower-Than-Expected Inflation Keeps Fed on Track for October Rate Cut

2 hr 32 min ago

It would have taken a surprising surge of inflation in September to deter the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates in October—and that didn’t happen.

The Consumer Price Index rose 3% over the year in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday. While that was the highest annual inflation rate since January, it was below forecasters’ expectations for a 3.1% uptick.

Moreover for the Fed, “core” inflation, which excludes volatile prices for food and energy, rose 3%, down from 3.1% in August and also below expectations. Fed policymakers watch “core” inflation measures closely because they can be better indicators of the trajectory of prices. Food and energy prices can rise and fall significantly for reasons that have nothing to do with broad inflation trends.

The report solidified expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark interest rate next week when the Fed’s policy committee is scheduled to meet. Fed officials cut the fed funds rate by a quarter-point in September to boost the faltering job market. The Fed had held rates high to counteract inflation, but concerns about prices have taken a back seat to worries about a hiring slowdown in recent months.

Even before Friday’s report, the Fed was widely expected to go ahead with a rate cut. Fed officials had penciled in two rate cuts at their remaining two meetings this year, as noted in their quarterly monetary policy projections last month.

Financial markets are pricing near certainty the Fed will cut the fed funds rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% by the end of the year, a half a percentage point below its current level, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data.

Read the full article here.

–Diccon Hyatt

2026 COLA Boost for Social Security Revealed—What Retirees Should Know

2 hr 43 min ago

While Social Security beneficiaries will see larger paychecks next year, the annual cost-of-living adjustment for 2026 may not be enough to keep up with older Americans’ growing expenses.

The Social Security Administration announced on Friday morning that the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment for benefits will be 2.8%. The adjustment, also known as COLA, is calculated every year based on inflation in the third quarter. The increased benefits will be reflected in checks starting in January.

This year’s announcement was delayed after the government shutdown stopped a key inflation report from being released on time.

The 2026 COLA is higher than the 2.5% adjustment for 2025; however, it may not be sufficient to keep pace with the rising expenses of many retired beneficiaries.

The Social Security COLA is calculated using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) for the third quarter of each year. That means the COLA utilizes inflation rates from July, August, and September.

However, since the formula uses past data and is not predictive, experts argue it does not accurately cover increases in Social Security beneficiaries’ expenses. In addition, as the majority of beneficiaries are older Americans, some have argued that the SSA should use inflation reports specifically for senior expenses.

Read the full article here.

–Elizabeth Guevara

Inflation Stayed High in September

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Inflation stayed stubbornly high in September, keeping the squeeze on the buying power of household budgets.

The Consumer Price Index rose 3.0% over the year in September, up from a 2.9% annual increase in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday. That was the highest 12-month inflation rate since January. “Core” inflation, which excludes volatile prices for food and energy, also rose 3.0% over the year, slightly lower than in August.

The report highlighted the staying power of the inflation surge that started as the economy re-opened from pandemic shutdowns in 2021. Inflation peaked at 40-year highs in 2022 and began to recede after that, as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to discourage borrowing.

Inflation generally fell after that, and had nearly reached the Fed’s goal of a 2% annual rate by early 2025. But the yearly inflation rate has risen every month since April, pushed up at least partly by President Donald Trump’s import taxes, which merchants have largely passed along to consumers.

The CPI report was the only data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics during the ongoing government shutdown, which began Oct. 1 and has no end in sight. The BLS brought back staff to produce the CPI report because it is crucial for determining the annual cost of living adjustments to Social Security benefits.

–Diccon Hyatt

Procter & Gamble Stock Rises After Better-Than-Expected Results

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Investors are responding positively to Procter & Gamble (PG)’s quarterly results and expectation for a reduced tariffs hit this fiscal year.

Shares of the Cincinnati-based consumer goods giant rose about 2.5% before the bell after it reported fiscal 2026 first-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.99 per share on sales that increased 3% year-over-year to $22.39 billion. Analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha had estimated $1.89 and $22.15 billion, respectively.

P&G now expects “higher costs from tariffs of approximately $400 million after tax for fiscal 2026,” the company said. It previously had guided for “approximately $800 million after-tax, in higher costs from tariffs.” 

P&G shares entered Friday down about 9% this year.

Stock Futures Rise Ahead of Inflation Data

5 hr 1 min ago

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 0.1%.

S&P 500 futures rose 0.3%.

Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.5%.