Welcome to the last First Friday episode of the year. Today, we’ll dive into an unprecedented moment in the U.S. economy: a missing jobs report, a divided Federal Reserve, a sluggish labor market, and a holiday shopping season shaped by AI, bargain hunters, and low consumer confidence.
In this episode, we cover:
Missing Jobs Report & Data Chaos:
Why the Bureau of Labor Statistics failed to publish two months of data, and why October’s numbers will never be released.
ADP Job Losses & Small Business Strain:
The private-sector payroll report shows major job losses — driven almost entirely by small businesses.
Fed Rate Decision — With No Data:
The Fed meets on December 9–10, forced to make a call on interest rates without official employment data for two months.
Holiday Spending Trends:
Record-breaking Cyber Week sales… paired with declining household budgets and soaring discount-store performance.
AI-Assisted Shopping:
Over half of consumers used AI to hunt deals, compare options, and track price drops — making this the most tech-driven holiday season ever.
Year-End Financial Moves:
Smart steps to take before December 31, including 401(k) contributions, FSA deadlines, tax-loss harvesting, and charitable giving strategies.
Key Takeaways
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We’re missing core economic data — the first time in 12 years a jobs report was delayed, and the first time ever a month will remain permanently blank.
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Small businesses are hurting the most, with ADP showing 32,000 job losses driven almost entirely by companies under 49 employees.
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The Fed may cut rates, but internal disagreement is unusually public — something not seen since the early 1980s.
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Consumers are pessimistic, spending less per household even as total holiday sales hit record highs.
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AI is now a mainstream shopping tool, influencing 22% of Cyber Week global sales.
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Now’s the time for year-end money housekeeping, especially for workplace retirement plans, FSAs, tax planning, and charitable giving.
Resources & Links
Glossary
ADP Payroll Report:
A monthly estimate of private-sector job creation based on payroll data from ADP clients — often used as a proxy when BLS data is unavailable.
JOLTS:
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey — measures job openings, hires, and quits.
Consumer Sentiment:
A gauge of how optimistic or pessimistic households feel about their financial future.
Qualified Charitable Distribution (QCD):
A tax-efficient way for people 70½+ to donate money directly from an IRA to a charity.
Tax-Loss Harvesting:
Selling investments at a loss to offset capital gains.
Timestamps
(Timestamps are approximate and may vary due to dynamic ad insertion.)
02:10 — Spotify Wrapped for Podcasters: Surprising Listener Overlap
06:45 — Why We’re Missing the BLS Jobs Report
12:30 — ADP Data: Small Businesses Take the Biggest Hit
18:55 — What the Fed Must Decide Without Official Jobs Numbers
24:40 — Will Mortgage Rates Finally Fall Below 6%?
29:15 — Holiday Spending: Record Sales, Declining Budgets
35:50 — Discount Chains Surge as Middle-Market Retail Slumps
41:20 — AI-Assisted Shopping: Price Tracking, Bots & Personalized Deals
46:10 — Buy Now, Pay Later Hits $10B — Good or Bad?
49:55 — Giving Tuesday’s Big Jump in Donations
53:20 — Year-End Financial Moves: 401(k)s, IRAs, FSAs & Tax Moves
59:00 — Final Thoughts: What This All Means for Your Money in 2026
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