Stocks Erase Steep Losses as Trump Says ‘War Is Very Complete,’ Oil Turns Lower

Workers Hold on Tight to Jobs as Hiring Slows and Layoffs Rise

FROM 13 hr 22 min ago

Workers are clinging to their jobs as the labor market slows.

Employers shed jobs in February, making workers reluctant to leave their positions, according to a newly released New York Federal Reserve consumer survey. The expected quit rate, which measures the probability of workers leaving their jobs voluntarily in the next year, decreased by nearly 3 percentage points to 15.9% in February.

It’s the lowest level recorded in more than a decade, and economists say it shows that workers are losing confidence in the labor market.

“Many workers are accustomed to switching jobs every three to five years or so,” wrote Cory Stahle, economist at Indeed Hiring Lab. “If they’re ready to move on and the opportunities aren’t there, they feel stuck.”

Read the full article here.

–Terry Lane

Are Investors Prepared for ‘More Violent and Frequent Shocks’ This Year?

FROM 14 hr 22 min ago

Stock-market jitters are back. But some experts think investors aren’t jittery enough.

Broad market indexes declined to start the week, with the Dow and the S&P 500 in the red as U.S. crude prices surged past $100 per barrel. A market gauge that measures investor sentiment known as the Cboe Volatility Index, or the VIX, briefly kissed the 30 level—a reading indicating fear—for the first time since April, when global stock markets crashed on the heels of the Trump administration unveiling its trade policy. CNN’s Fear & Greed Index recently pointed to “extreme” fear. 

For all of the negative and potentially lasting implications of a prolonged war in Iran, investors appear largely convinced—as measured by major banks clients’ equity positions—that the dislocation in U.S. stocks will prove fleeting. Some market experts, however, say investors aren’t pricing in the possibility of outcomes like a correction in U.S. stocks or a recession.

“Overall equity positioning in our reading has dipped slightly below neutral,” Deutsche Bank’s research team including Parage Thatte and Binky Chadha said in a research report on Friday. “A profusion of shocks in the last 4 years,” they wrote, “has inured investors into not reacting to potentially short-term disruption.”

On prediction markets, there’s some caution—but not outright fear in stocks. Polymarket bettors place the highest probability, or about 74%, on the S&P 500 ending the month at above 6500, implying a less than 5% decline from recent levels. 

Read the full article here.

–Crystal Kim

Gas Prices Climb as Middle East Tensions Spike—See Which States Are Cheapest and Most Expensive

FROM 14 hr 46 min ago

Oil prices have climbed steeply as the Iran war fuels fears of supply disruptions, and the impact has quickly shown up at the pump. The national average for regular gas has surged 50 cents a gallon in eight days, rising from $2.98 on Feb. 28 to $3.48 today.

Prices first breached the $3 mark on March 1, after holding below that level for 13 straight weeks—the first sustained stretch in $2 territory since 2021. But since then, the national average has climbed every day for over a week as the Middle East conflict escalates and oil prices rise.

Because gasoline prices tend to track crude, the rally in energy markets has quickly filtered through to drivers.

Gas prices vary sharply depending on where you live. While the average has surged everywhere, state-level prices still span a wide range across the country.

Read the full article here.

–Sabrina Karl

Oil Prices Are at a Four-Year High—and Some Experts Warn of a Possible Recession

FROM 15 hr 1 min ago

The price of oil continued to surge Monday as the war in Iran stretched into its second week, raising questions about its effect on consumers, markets and the global economy.

Oil futures jumped to a nearly four-year high Sunday evening. Brent crude, the global benchmark, and West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, both approached $120 a barrel overnight before retreating to around $100 on Monday morning. Oil prices are up about 40% since the U.S. and Israel began strikes late last month.

Iran has launched missile and drone strikes on oil infrastructure in neighboring countries—and all but shut down the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes on its way out of the Middle East. Over the weekend, some U.S. and Israeli strikes targeted energy assets in Iran. 

Bank of America analysts in a note on Friday warned that a persistent rise in oil prices above $100 a barrel “would probably take more than 60 [basis points] off GDP growth.” A sustained period of high prices, they wrote, could aggravate inflation, pressuring low-income consumers, and weigh on the stock market, tightening financial conditions for the high-income consumers who have recently been propping up the economy.

Read the full article here.

–Colin Laidley

Retirement Account Balances Surged Last Year. Here’s What Made the Difference

FROM 15 hr 48 min ago

Over the past year, retirement savers have watched their balances grow substantially thanks to a booming stock market and increased contributions.

A recent analysis by Fidelity looked at tens of millions of IRA and 401(k) accounts and found the average 401(k) balance had increased more than 11% between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025. The average IRA balance rose 7% during that time.

In 2025, the S&P 500 gained nearly 18% largely due to strong growth in AI stocks such as NVIDIA (NVDA), Meta (META), and Alphabet (GOOGL).

The solid performance of the stock market may have encouraged savers to stash more in their retirement accounts, according to some financial advisors.

“I have seen that once clients experience the benefit of a rising market and the power of compounding interest, they tend to be more motivated to continue to fund their retirement accounts,” wrote Zachary Bachner, a certified financial planner (CFP) at Summit Financial Consulting, in an email.

Read the full article here.

–Trina Paul

The Iran War Is Pushing the US Economy Toward ‘Stagflation’

FROM 16 hr 8 min ago

War in the Middle East, surging oil prices, and a stagnant labor market: The economic situation is starting to feel like the 1970s.

The outlook for the economy worsened over the weekend as the U.S. and Israel continued to strike Iran. Iran kept the Strait of Hormuz virtually closed, bottling up some 20% of the world’s crude oil supply. Fears grew that the war and its disruption to energy supplies could drag on, as leaders on both sides of the conflict showed no signs of backing down.

The prospect of a prolonged war raised the chances of the U.S. experiencing a period of high inflation and slow economic growth called “stagflation.” The last major bout of stagflation took hold in the 1970s during all-too-similar conditions, when a conflict between the U.S. and Iran caused energy prices to skyrocket. Whether stagflation takes hold again depends on how long the current war goes on, economists said.

“The U.S. economy now faces its second stagflation-like shock inside a year,” Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a commentary. “On the heels of the trade war, the Iran war will lift inflation and bond yields, disrupt energy supply chains, rattle investor and business confidence, and weaken global demand.”

Read the full article here.

–Diccon Hyatt

Financials Sector Leads S&P 500 Declines Monday

FROM 17 hr 52 min ago

Eight of the 11 industries tracked by the S&P 500 were in the red Monday morning. Financial shares were the worst of the bunch.

The S&P 500 Financials Sector was down roughly 2.1% in recent trading. Other struggling sectors were Consumer Discretionary (1.7%) and Materials (1.5%).

Franklin Resources (BEN), Capital One Financial (COF), and Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) were the worst-performing individual stocks in the sector, down 5.5%, 4.5%, and 4%, respectively.

The benchmark index was down 0.6% overall.

Hims & Hers Stock Pops on a Deal With Rival Novo Nordisk—What You Need to Know

FROM 19 hr 25 min ago

Hims & Hers Health stock is soaring to start the week.

Shares of the telehealth provider were up nearly 37% Monday morning after Hims & Hers (HIMS) said it struck a deal with Novo Nordisk (NVO) to sell the Danish rival’s weight-loss drugs on its platform. Novo Nordisk’s U.S.-listed shares were up 1% recently.

Hims & Hers said Monday that Ozempic and Wegovy will become available through its platform later this month. Novo Nordisk also said it’s dismissing its lawsuit against Hims over its sale of compounded medications.

Read the full story here.

–Aaron McDade

Why More Homebuyers Are Choosing the Mortgage Tied to the 2008 Housing Crisis

FROM 20 hr 11 min ago

High mortgage rates have been overwhelming homebuyers for the past three years, and some are turning to a mortgage option that helped fuel the 2008 housing crisis.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) offer fixed introductory rates that later adjust—typically to a higher rate—to reflect current market conditions. These loans have become more popular with homebuyers as mortgage rates remain persistently above 6%.

While those homeowners risk higher monthly mortgage payments should rates hike, housing industry officials said better lending standards are minimizing the risks of these loans.

“In the current timeline, these buyers still are at minimal to low risk,” said Phil Crescenzo Jr., vice president of the Southeast Division at Nation One Mortgage Corporation, in an email interview.  

Read the full article here.

–Terry Lane

Vertiv, EchoStar, Lumentum Shares Rise on News of S&P 500 Inclusion; Coherent Slips

FROM 20 hr 34 min ago

Coherent (COHR) shares surged last Monday on news Nvidia (NVDA) would invest $2 billion in the photonics and laser maker. They are not getting a boost on news the company will be joining the S&P 500.

After the bell Friday, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Coherent, Vertiv (VRT), EchoStar (SATS), and Lumentum (LITE)—which also received a $2 billion investment from the AI giant—would be joining the benchmark index before markets open March 23.

Coherent shares slipped about 0.5% before the bell Monday, although the other three companies’ stocks advanced roughly 3% each.

The quartet will replace Match Group (MTCH), Molina Healthcare (MOH), Lamb Weston Holdings (LW), and Paycom Software (PAYC), which will move to the S&P SmallCap 600.

What to Expect in Markets This Week: Data on Inflation, Housing, and Consumer Sentiment; Earnings From Oracle, Adobe

FROM 21 hr 20 min ago

Inflation will be in the spotlight this week.

Two major economic reports on prices are landing just ahead of next week’s key interest rate decision, providing fresh indicators on the cost of living as central bankers debate whether to further lower borrowing costs and investors eye energy prices. Existing-home sales and other housing data comes as economists are watching for improvements in that market.

Investors will also be evaluating momentum in the AI and software sectors, with Oracle, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, and Adobe set to report earnings this week. Dollar General leads a string of noteworthy retail earnings, while Tesla’s Chinese EV competitors are also on deck.

Read the full article here.

–Terry Lane

Live Nation Entertainment Stock Surges on Report DOJ Settlement Near, Would Avoid Selling Ticketmaster

FROM 21 hr 55 min ago

Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) reportedly is nearing a settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice that would not force it to divest Ticketmaster. Investors are cheering the development.

Shares of Live Nation soared 9% before the bell Monday after Bloomberg, citing people with knowledge of the matter, reported that “settlement discussions have intensified since a trial kicked off March 2 and a final agreement could be announced in the coming days.”

In 2024, the Justice Department filed an antitrust lawsuit accusing Live Nation of monopolizing the concert ticketing and promotion market, which the company denied, and sought to force it to sell its Ticketmaster unit.

Live Nation shares entered Monday up about 10% year-to-date.

Stock Market Today: Futures Plummet as Oil Tops $100/Barrel

FROM 22 hr 17 min ago

Futures contracts connected to the Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 1.1%.

S&P 500 futures were down 1.0%.

Nasdaq 100 futures retreated 1.1%.