(Image credit: Jonathan Raa/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
To help you understand the trends surrounding AI and other new technologies and what we expect to happen in the future, our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts. (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe.) You’ll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here’s the latest…
The Pentagon banning Anthropic from its defense systems and networks is much more than a contract dispute. The government’s approach to artificial intelligence could affect the entire artificial intelligence industry.
The feud is over Anthropic requesting restrictions on fully autonomous weapons and mass domestic surveillance, citing concerns about AI’s unreliability and citizens’ fundamental civil rights. The Pentagon says a private company dictating the terms of use for military AI is untenable, and that it follows the law.
Article continues below
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more – straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice – straight to your e-mail.
Here are five takeaways from the ongoing dispute.
1. The administration is treating artificial intelligence as a powerful weapon, rather than a normal technology.
In this view, the tech is akin to a nuclear bomb, not a piece of software. Washington sees AI as crucial to military power and is in an arms race with China. That has huge implications for how the federal government may treat private companies developing AI in the future.
Generative AI is rapidly being integrated into mission planning and combat, including now in Iran, for intelligence, target assessments, wargaming and more. The current approach is to ramp up AI adoption across the military and have unfettered access to the very best tools available.
2. Anthropic is likely to win this legal battle but still suffer business damage.
The AI company is challenging the Pentagon’s labeling it a supply chain risk, a designation used for suppliers (mostly foreign adversaries) that are a national security risk. Anthropic also opposes the Pentagon calling for a wider ban in the private sector, which is beyond the scope of a supply chain risk designation.
For now, the government says federal agencies have six months to stop using Anthropic, while the company in a legal filing has already pointed to “irreparable harm” and huge losses from being blacklisted. Other cutting-edge AI choices are available to the government, including from OpenAI, Google and Meta.
3. The government’s aggressive tactics are here to stay and will jolt AI firms.
(Image credit: Getty Images)
Even if the government loses in court, the pressure could coerce other AI companies to avoid similar confrontations. Military leaders will keep pushing AI firms to acquiesce, aiming to remove any usage restrictions baked into their AI model or in contracts.
The harsh tactics have irked Silicon Valley and beyond, casting a shadow over AI development. And tensions over AI guardrails aren’t over. Consider that OpenAI, which signed a new Pentagon contract after Anthropic was officially banned, continues to say it has red lines and will monitor military use.
Look for louder calls for Congress to step in and set rules for military AI.
4. Attempts at exerting control over AI are a bipartisan affair.
The Trump administration has also threatened to force Anthropic to build its desired AI tools by invoking the Defense Production Act, a Korean War-era law meant for steel mills and tank factories. Doing so would be a major escalation and would invite swift legal challenges.
It’s not clear how the legal case would play out. But note that the Biden administration also invoked the DPA for rigorous information gathering of leading-edge AI models. Though less coercive than forcing certain software to be built, it still sparked criticism from the industry.
Both parties see AI as too important to be left alone, though they differ on the risks, appropriate oversight and tactics.
5. Investors should monitor the government’s approach as billions of dollars in contracts flows to AI.
Banning certain AI companies, asserting control over AI or potential federal regulations could shake up the market. Anthropic reportedly has reached a rate of $20 billion in yearly sales and has a $380 billion valuation, and is eyeing an initial public offering this year. It continues to gain users, but some customers may be wary and opt for competitors, hoping to avoid confrontation with the Trump administration.
Meanwhile, Anthropic customers who have military contracts are scrambling to figure out if the ban means they have to ditch Anthropic. Federal contracts for AI will amount to tens of billions of dollars in coming years. Being excluded would be a huge loss for a large tech firm or a start-up.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.