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How much extra would you pay for satellite internet direct to your phone? That’s the $100 billion question satellite companies are asking these days. The technology promises to help users stay connected even in the most remote areas where cellular service is unavailable. It can be used for emergency messaging, web surfing and even video calls. It requires no extra hardware, either.
The nascent direct-to-device market has the satellite industry buzzing with excitement, even if the business model, customer demand and technical solutions are still up in the air.
Satellite firms are making huge bets
SpaceX, the current leader, has plans for 15,000 more Starlink D2D satellites and spent $17 billion to buy airwaves from EchoStar to boost its service. SpaceX says its next-generation D2D satellites will be competitive with 5G service from Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobile and top carriers around the world.
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Meanwhile, Amazon recently bought Globalstar for $11.6 billion to enter the market with its coming satellite constellation. Globalstar provides D2D for Apple iPhones. Other firms working on D2D include AST SpaceMobile, Lynk Global, MDA Space and SES.
Market research firm Novaspace forecasts cumulative revenue from D2D hitting $100 billion through 2034. Backers think the business will be a key growth area for the booming space industry. Optimistic forecasts are a major justification for the sky-high $2 trillion valuation SpaceX is seeking when it goes public this summer. A recent report by PitchBook, a Morningstar company, has a very bullish forecast of SpaceX scaling to 750 million D2D subscribers by 2040.
For now, satellite usage by consumers is limited
D2D is currently used for emergencies, simple text messages and apps that use only small amounts of data. Rather than primary connectivity, it’s a useful backup in spots without cell service. Ookla, a company that tracks internet performance, found that only 0.46% of U.S. users recorded a connection to a D2D satellite in March 2026.
“We’re seeing a lot less usage than we were originally thinking,” said T-Mobile CEO Srinivasan Gopalan in the company’s recent first-quarter earnings call. “But it’s a great complementary product.”
T-Mobile’s satellite service
The telecom company, which partnered with SpaceX, offers satellite service free for top-tier T-Mobile plans and charges $10 per month for other customers. The service, called T-Satellite, can be used for text messages, voice chat, 911 and apps such as WhatsApp, AccuWeather and Apple Music. Most usage has been in national parks.
Apple’s satellite service
Apple currently foots the bill for its satellite service, which works on newer iPhones to connect with emergency services when users are off the grid. Who pays will be an increasingly pressing question as satellite firms try to stoke demand. Trying to get consumers to pay extra will be tough since cellular service covers so much of the country and globe. Plus, it’s not as easy as connecting to cell service. Apple says you need a direct view of the sky and horizon and messages could take 30 seconds or more to send.
What’s next for consumer satellite services?
Speeds will get faster and the tech will soon be available across hundreds of millions of global devices. By 2030, nearly half of the mobile phones shipped will have satellite capability, according to a recent analysis by Counterpoint Research.
However, the market is likely smaller than the most bullish forecasts. Skeptics highlight the technical limits of signals from space reaching smartphones, including that it typically only works outside. Meanwhile, terrestrial cell service continues to get faster and better.
But for users plagued by dead spots and outages, it’s an exciting development that’s worth investigating. For hikers and adventurers, it could be lifesaving in an emergency. And it’s worth watching the new capabilities that roll out from SpaceX and others. Still, for primary cell service, it’s not likely to replace your current provider anytime soon, or maybe ever.
Next year promises to shed light on the market. That’s when SpaceX is poised to see meaningful revenue, say analysts at Quilty Space, a space market research firm. With the company going public, investors could soon have much more info about the market.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.