The main equity indexes opened comfortably higher Tuesday but quickly erased these early gains amid escalating geopolitical tensions. A bearish reversal in chip stocks created headwinds, too, as market participants sought out more defensive plays.
The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average, broader S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite were each roughly 1% higher out of the gate today, but were staring at stiff losses by lunchtime. At the close, the Dow was up 0.2% at 50,872, but the S&P 500 was 0.3% lower at 7,386, and the Nasdaq was off 1% at 25,678.
Sentiment took a hit after President Donald Trump said Iran shot down a U.S. military helicopter and that “the United States must, of necessity, respond to this attack.”
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Trump’s post on Truth Social temporarily caused oil prices to spike, but front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished the session down 3.4% at $88.20 per barrel after Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is “rising very meaningfully.”
Fear gauge spikes, defensive stocks see upside
Evidence of investors’ skittishness was seen in the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) Tuesday, with the market’s “fear gauge” jumping 5% to 19.86.
Gains in several defensive sectors, including real estate (+2.1%), healthcare (+1.3%) and consumer staples stocks (+1.0%) also signaled a more cautious stance from market participants.
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J. M. Smucker (SJM, +10.4%) was the best S&P 500 stock today as the packaged-food maker’s better-than-expected earnings and revenue for its fiscal fourth quarter offset its forecast for declining revenue in its new fiscal year.
Ahead of SJM’s earnings report, UBS Global Research analyst Peter Grom reiterated a Buy rating on the defensive stock, saying the company’s “setup remains among the best in the group as SJM will likely underwrite on-algorithm bottom-line growth for fiscal 2027, a rarity relative not only to Packaged Food peers but also across our whole Staples universe.”
And while Grom expected weaker top-line guidance, he noted that “investors view SJM’s portfolio as more immune to the ongoing challenges across the industry.”
Micron’s sell-off is an “opportunity,” says UBS
Only two of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished in the red today — technology (-1.8%) and energy (-1.6%). But given that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are weighted by market capitalization rather than price as is the Dow, the selling in mega-cap tech stocks had an outsize impact.
Several of Wall Street’s trillion-dollar stocks, including Nvidia (NVDA, -0.2%), Apple (AAPL, -3.6%) and Broadcom (AVGO, -1.1%) closed lower.
Memory chipmaker Micron Technology (MU), which catapulted north of a $1 trillion market cap late last month, also finished in the red, shedding 1.4%. Shares are now down more than 13% since June 3, but Wall Street isn’t worried.
Indeed, MU remains one of analysts’ top-rated S&P 500 stocks. Of the 44 analysts covering the tech stock tracked by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 39 say it’s a Buy or Strong Buy, four have it at Hold and one says Sell. This works out to a consensus Strong Buy rating.
UBS Global Research analyst Nicolas Gaudois on Monday reiterated his Buy rating and $1,625 price target — representing implied upside of nearly 75% to current levels.
Gaudois says Micron’s recent sell-off creates an “opportunity” for investors, as “checks point to continuing upside in demand [for memory chipmakers], not downside, which is likely to persist on agentic AI demand.”
What to expect from the May CPI report
The war in Iran and semiconductor volatility are top of mind for Wall Street this week, but market participants will also be watching Wednesday morning’s release of the May Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Energy prices have soared in recent months as a result of the conflict in the Middle East, which has caused recent inflation readings to come in hot and erased any expectations for rate cuts this year.
According to CME Group FedWatch, futures traders don’t expect any rate cuts at all in 2026. Earlier this year, betting odds were for at least one quarter-point cut.
The Federal Open Market Committee may even consider rate hikes this year, writes David Payne, staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, in the Kiplinger inflation outlook. “The Fed generally discounts energy price fluctuations in its deliberations on interest rate policy. But the central bank will also note that ‘core’ inflation (excluding food and energy) is likely to creep upwards as the year progresses,” he explains.
The May CPI report hits one week before the Fed — now led by Chair Kevin Warsh — issues its latest policy decision. Economists expect headline inflation to be up 4.3% year over year, which would be the highest annual increase since April 2023.