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Samsung brought foldable phones into the mainstream in 2019. But now that Apple is joining the fray, foldables will enter the public consciousness in a big way.
The new iPhone Duo is the first major hardware redesign of the iPhone since it launched in 2007. When Apple enters a new hardware category, it becomes a force to be reckoned with, and its folding phone will be no exception.
The niche segment has superfans, who are drawn to the expandable screen, which opens to a nearly seamless touchscreen the size of two phones next to each other. The middle crease has proven durable over the years, able to take thousands of bends. When closed, the phone still has a full front touchscreen and can slip in a pants pocket.
Apple’s unique foldable proposition
The passport-sized iPhone Duo leverages Apple’s unique ability to design in-house computer chips, phone hardware and mobile software for an easy, fast user experience. Apple highlighted the Duo’s larger screen as better for streaming video, taking photos and making video calls. The company didn’t talk about how the device could harness Apple’s artificial intelligence software, but Duo-specific AI features are in the pipeline.
The device is a big test for new Apple CEO John Ternus, a 25-year veteran of the company who specializes in hardware. Recent hit products include the iPhone 17 and the MacBook Neo, a budget laptop. Like all electronics makers, the company has felt the sting of higher memory costs, forcing it to raise prices on laptops, tablets and phones.
Despite foldables seeing steady improvements in hardware and software, sales have been limited and the customer base may always be small. Foldables are only 2% of the smartphone market, according to Counterpoint Research, a tech market research firm. From 2019 to today, about 100 million foldables have been shipped, according to the firm.
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Why pay attention to such a small category?
One reason to monitor foldables is that the tech behind flexible touchscreens has more potential to improve, an exciting prospect for those lamenting that smartphones haven’t changed much since 2007. Premium pricing lets sellers enter a new category of device, good for the bottom lines of top tech companies. And sales are set to surge, a bright spot in an otherwise tough smartphone market.
Apple’s new devices will be a hit and help overall foldable sales surge 37% this year, says Counterpoint Research, helping drive up to 100 million foldable shipments over the next three years. Apple figures to ship up to six million foldables this year, good for a 25% market share, behind leader Samsung and just ahead of Huawei, predicts the firm.
“Apple’s entry will surely increase competition at the premium end,” said Tarun Pathak, analyst at Counterpoint Research, in an online post. Samsung keeps pushing innovation and vendors are preparing new designs and form factors, he noted. Companies working on new models include Motorola, HONOR, Google, vivo and OPPO.
Who are foldables for?
(Image credit: Karl Mondon / AFP via Getty Images)
The large screens are ideal for multitaskers, since two apps can run side-by-side, such as email and a PDF report, or Slack and a spreadsheet. The devices are far more portable than a laptop or a tablet. Artificial intelligence chatbots can run beside other apps, useful for on-the-go workers who want to use AI to summarize a report, analyze a highlighted section of a financial report, or build a presentation.
Then there are potential buyers who watch lots of online video, whether from social media or streaming services. The screen is a huge upgrade over average smartphones.
Just as the form factor isn’t for everyone, the price isn’t, either. The Duo starts at $2,000, about the average starting price for other foldables. Certain models and configurations cost much more. Leading models include Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold 8, Huawei’s Pura X Max and Xiaomi 18 Fold. The devices are also chunkier than normal phones, so if you’re on the fence, test one in person at a retailer.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.