As the 2026 midterm elections approach, President Donald Trump is promising Americans money directly from the federal government. So far, that includes a recent proposed $5,000 “dividend” for adults and $500 rebates for certain Affordable Care Act (ACA) enrollees.
Understandably, the promises are causing confusion about where the money is coming from, how certain the payments might be, and who may be in line to receive the funds.
So far, the administration has indicated that the ACA rebates are expected to begin in October.
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The $5,000 dividend remains a campaign promise that would require congressional action and could cost more than $1 trillion. Here’s more to know.
For many people looking for a tax-friendly retirement, no-income-tax states like Florida usually top the list. But recent data indicate an interesting trend: More and more older adults are choosing a small Mid-Atlantic state where the retirement math is more interesting than some might expect.
We’re talking about Delaware.
According to U.S. Census Bureau data, Delaware’s population of residents age 65 and older has increased by 23% since 2020. That’s the fastest growth rate in the nation for the 65-and-older population, according to Census estimates.
Part of the draw might be that newcomers to beach communities like Lewes, Rehoboth Beach and Milton can enjoy a coastal lifestyle without moving far from family and friends elsewhere in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.
Interestingly, though Delaware isn’t a zero-income-tax state like retirement powerhouses Florida or Texas, taxes factor into the equation for some retirees running the numbers. Here’s more to know.
Trump’s $5,000 dividend checks
Trump announced his latest payment proposal Wednesday night at a Republican midterm convention in Dallas, telling the crowd: “A dividend of at least $5,000 a person, not including high-income people, will be paid to almost everybody.”
Trump said the money would come primarily from tariff revenue and that the payments would be made if Republicans retain control of Congress in November.
With roughly 260 million adult Americans, $5,000 payments would cost about $1.3 trillion, not including administrative costs or any income-based exclusions.
Vice President JD Vance has since suggested that higher-income Americans wouldn’t receive the money.
Trump has pointed to tariff revenue as a source for the dividend, but the available numbers don’t come close to matching the potential cost.
- The federal government reportedly collected about $264 billion in customs duties in the most recent fiscal year, according to reporting on the administration’s tariff receipts.
- That’s far below the potential $1.3 trillion price tag.
Another complication: The administration is now refunding some of the tariff money it collected.
As Kiplinger has reported, the United States Supreme Court’s February ruling against Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose broad tariffs has resulted in a massive refund process, with roughly $100 billion already paid out by the end of July. That means tariff revenue isn’t necessarily a pot of available funds the administration can count on for future checks.
The promise also comes as the national debt has surpassed $39 trillion, making the math behind a $1 trillion-plus payout even more difficult.
The newly promised dividend would require Congress to approve the necessary legislation and funding. Trump hasn’t provided a plan showing how the government would finance payments of that size. And the idea, which reportedly caught many even in his own party off guard, is already receiving blowback.
Also worth noting: The latest $5,000 Trump proposal follows two earlier similar ideas that never materialized: Trump’s proposal for $2,000 tariff rebate checks and his DOGE dividend, which was supposed to return a portion of government savings to taxpayers.
$500 ACA rebate payments?
The ACA payments Trump announced on October 10 are different.
In an online video message, Trump announced that nearly 1 million ACA enrollees would receive $500 refunds. “Nearly one million hardworking Americans in 30 states will soon be getting refunds of $500 each, with a check sent to their home address,” Trump said.
The Trump administration says that nearly 1 million people in 30 states will receive refunds beginning in October, with the money coming from excess user fees paid by insurers that sell plans through HealthCare.gov.
(Those fees help pay for the federal exchange, including the website, call center, and enrollment assistance programs.)
- Insurers incorporate the fees into premiums, so consumers generally don’t see a separate “user fee” on their bills.
- For 2025, the fee was 1.5% of premiums; for 2026, it was increased to 2.5%.
- The Biden administration set both rates roughly a year in advance, anticipating higher costs and lower enrollment after the enhanced ACA subsidies expired.
Trump says those fees were “massively overcharged” and that consumers should be refunded. But the explanation seems to be more nuanced.
Cynthia Cox, Kaiser Family Foundation’s senior vice president and director of the Program on the ACA, told Reuters that the surplus doesn’t necessarily mean consumers were overcharged. She said it also reflects the Trump administration’s decision to reduce spending on programs like enrollment assistance while continuing to collect the fee. Cox added that she didn’t know of any precedent for returning excess user fees directly to consumers.
The administration has reportedly identified people it says are eligible.
It seems that the refunds will primarily go to ACA Marketplace enrollees who earn more than 400% of the federal poverty level and therefore don’t qualify for premium subsidies. Some people between 100% and 400% of the poverty level who didn’t receive subsidies might be included.
ACA premiums 2027
The timing of both the $500 rebate and the $5,000 dividend is interesting. First, the upcoming November midterm elections and the fact that millions of ACA enrollees already face higher health insurance costs, with open enrollment season just around the corner.
The enhanced ACA premium tax credits, available as a result of legislation passed during the pandemic, expired at the end of last year after the Republican-led Congress didn’t extend them.
The Kaiser Family Foundation found that the average monthly premium payment for Marketplace enrollees rose 58% in 2026, from $113 to $178, including people who did not receive premium tax credits.
Against that backdrop, if the administration has the legal authority to issue them, a one-time $500 rebate might potentially help some consumers. But it wouldn’t address the broader increase in the cost of maintaining ACA coverage.
Meanwhile, many see Trump’s announcement at the midterm Republican convention as a way to win votes in an upcoming election in which Democrats are widely expected to take back at least one chamber of Congress. Right now, the GOP controls the White House, the U.S. Senate, and the House of Representatives.
Who will actually get Trump checks?
The two latest Trump payment promises have very different paths to fruition.
As mentioned, the Trump administration says the $500 ACA rebate is expected to begin going out in October to a specific group of Marketplace enrollees in 30 states, using existing exchange fee collections. However, questions remain about whether the administration has the legal authority to make the payments.
The $5,000 dividend remains a much larger, more tenuous, and highly contingent campaign promise. Stay tuned.