You already price-checked flights or scanned a gift list and felt the sticker shock. That is not your imagination. Forty-four percent of Americans expect to carry holiday debt into 2027. Average holiday spending should reach $950 per person this year. A holiday budget built now, before Black Friday, can change that number.
Why Holiday Debt Is Already the Story in September
Retailers start holiday marketing earlier every year. Your budget planning should start early too. A written plan started in September works like building a budget in your 20s for any other goal. One weekly number replaces one big guess in December.
Omnisend’s 2026 holiday shopping survey polled over 1,100 US shoppers in August. The results show a clear pattern. Seventy-eight percent expect higher prices to shape their holiday spending this year. Thirty eight percent already plan to spend less than last year. Average spending is still climbing toward $950 per person anyway. That gap between rising prices and shrinking budgets creates holiday debt.
What This Year’s Numbers Actually Show
The average shopper expects to carry $408 in debt after the holidays. Nationally, that adds up to an estimated $48.6 billion in post-holiday debt. Thirty-nine percent of US shoppers say they will use buy now, pay later loans this season. That is down from nearly 45 percent last year. Some shoppers seem wary of stacking short-term loans on top of holiday spending. Still, four in ten shoppers expect to start the new year owing money on this season’s gifts and travel.
Holiday debt is not only about gifts anymore. Half of Americans say rising grocery costs make hosting a holiday gathering more stressful. Fifty-three percent plan to host a gathering or bring food to one this year. A third expect to spend more on groceries alone than last holiday season. A grocery bill that used to feel predictable now competes directly with gift money for the same paycheck.
How a Holiday Budget Actually Works
A holiday budget is not a spending cap you set on December 1. It works best as a weekly savings target you start now and track like a bill. Take your realistic total for gifts, travel, and hosting. Divide it by the paychecks left before the holidays. That weekly number becomes your actual budget, not the wish list total.
Naming the number is the straightforward part. Sticking to it means separating holiday money from everyday spending. A dedicated savings account works well for this. It removes the temptation to treat holiday cash like it is still available for a Tuesday grocery run.
What to Do If You’re Starting Late
September still leaves roughly fourteen weeks before most gift buying wraps up. Splitting a $600 holiday goal across fourteen weeks means saving about $43 a week starting now. That same $600 goal squeezed into four weeks in December means finding $150 a week instead. The math rewards starting now over starting in November, every time.
Your current paycheck might have no room for $43 a week right now. Look at short term income options before reaching for a card. Many shoppers close that gap with seasonal side hustle ideas like gift wrapping or event staffing. Retail seasonal jobs also open up specifically because demand rises this time of year.
Where Buy Now, Pay Later Actually Fits
Buy now, pay later loans are not automatically a mistake for holiday spending. A single four-payment plan on one purchase you already budgeted for works fine. Five separate BNPL loans opened across one shopping weekend work very differently. That second pattern is what turns a manageable purchase into stacked debt due across different dates in January.
This year’s drop in BNPL usage suggests some shoppers already draw that line themselves. If BNPL is part of your plan, count those payments inside your weekly budget number. Do not treat them as money you will figure out later.
Frequently Asked Questions About Holiday Budgets
How much should I budget for the holidays in 2026?
Average per person holiday spending should reach $950 this year. Your real number depends on your own gift list, travel, and hosting plans.
When should I start saving for holiday spending?
Now. Starting in September or October spreads the cost across small weekly savings deposits instead of one large December expense.
Is buy now, pay later a bad way to pay for holiday gifts?
Not inherently. A single BNPL plan for one planned purchase differs from several overlapping loans opened during one shopping spree.
How do I avoid credit card debt from holiday shopping?
Set a weekly savings target now. Keep it in a separate account. Treat that account as your actual gift budget once the season arrives.
Why do grocery costs affect holiday budgets so much this year?
Half of surveyed Americans say rising grocery prices make hosting more stressful. A third expect to spend more on groceries than last year.
Final Thoughts
Nobody plans to start January owing hundreds of dollars on holiday spending. It happens because the math piles into a few expensive weeks in December. Pick a real total this week. Divide it by the paychecks left before the holidays. Move that amount into its own account starting now.
Photo by Svitlana: Unsplash