Only One In Three Public Four-Year Colleges Is Affordable For Low-Income Students, NCAN Finds

Just 32% of public bachelor’s degree-granting colleges were affordable for low- and moderate-income students in the 2023-24 academic year, according to the National College Attainment Network’s 2026 Affordability Gap analysis.

Community colleges, often pitched as the cheaper path to a degree, fared only slightly better at 42%. The average shortfall reached $1,801 at public four-year schools and $1,228 at community colleges, and NCAN says gaps widened in both sectors.

NCAN counts a school as affordable only when its total in-state price, plus $300 for emergencies, is covered by grant aid, federal student loans, Federal Work-Study, an estimated family contribution similar to the Student Aid Index, and three months of minimum-wage summer earnings.

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Why It Matters

The affordability gap has grown even as tuition plateaued and the maximum Pell Grant rose a historic $500 to $7,395 for 2023-24. NCAN blames inflation: living expenses made up a larger share of the cost of attendance than tuition and fees that year, on average.

The authors wrote that “investments in public higher education programs have struggled to keep pace, eroding the purchasing power of available aid.“

This data is also two years old. The Pell maximum has stayed at $7,395 ever since, so a flat award has lost ground every year that housing and food prices kept climbing. That puts more weight on state and institutional aid programs to fill the hole.

This data also comes at a time when some analyses have posted massive declines in the college wage premium and a record-low percentage of Americans see the value in higher ed. So much of this ties back to affordability.

Understanding The College Affordability Gap

Twelve states had no affordable public four-year college: Connecticut, Delaware, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee and Vermont.
Community colleges were completely unaffordable in seven states: Connecticut, Idaho, Indiana, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Utah and Vermont.
New Hampshire had no affordable public college at all, with average gaps of $11,731 at community colleges and $7,632 at four-year schools.
Tennessee students could afford 63% of community colleges but none of the state’s public four-year schools.
Only Arizona, Mississippi, Montana and New Mexico had an average institution that met NCAN’s bar in both sectors.

How Affordable Is College In Your State?

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How Affordable Are Public Colleges In Your State? Hover Or Tap A State

Share of public colleges where grants, federal student loans, Federal Work-Study, expected family contribution and a summer job cover the full in-state price (plus $300 for emergencies) for low- and moderate-income students, 2023-24.

View All States As A Table

State	Four-Year Affordable	Four-Year Avg. Gap	Community College Affordable	Community College Avg. Gap

Source: National College Attainment Network, The Affordability Gap (2026), state affordability profiles, 2023-24 academic year. A negative figure is the average amount students come up short. A positive figure is a surplus. N/A means NCAN did not report that sector for the state. D.C. is not included. Map: The College Investor.

The map shades each state by the share of its public colleges that met NCAN’s affordability test in 2023-24, from red (none) through tan to green (75% or more). Use the toggle to switch between four-year colleges and community colleges, then hover over or tap a state to see its average gap, the amount a typical low- or moderate-income student came up short after grants, federal loans and work-study. A positive number is a surplus (21 states had a surplus in at least one area).

Illinois students faced an average gap of $2,171 at community colleges but had a $774 surplus at four-year schools, while Kentucky flipped that pattern with a $3,168 community college surplus and a $2,263 four-year gap. These figures are averages across each state’s public colleges, so a family’s own result depends on its Student Aid Index and the school.

NCAN didn’t report community college figures for Alaska, Delaware, Florida, Nevada or Washington.

How This Connects

College affordability has been a driving force in the news. Families are feeling that college is more unaffordable than ever. The student loan borrowing crisis is exacerbated by higher college costs and more borrowing. And the one big beautiful bill act is significantly changing the borrowing rules for families that need to fill any gaps.

Families who covered gaps with parent borrowing now face tighter rules, since new Parent PLUS limits took effect July 1, 2026 as part of the broader federal student loan overhaul.

What’s Next

NCAN is urging Congress to increase Pell funding and asking state leaders to protect need-based aid as budgets absorb federal cuts to SNAP and Medicaid. Watch the next appropriations cycle for the Pell maximum, which has a history of budget shortfall warnings, and NCAN’s interactive dashboard for more detail.

Editor: Colin Graves

The post Only One In Three Public Four-Year Colleges Is Affordable For Low-Income Students, NCAN Finds appeared first on The College Investor.

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