To help you understand what’s going on in politics and what we expect to happen in the future, our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You’ll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here’s the latest…
The midterm elections are six months away. Here’s our early take on how it will go down.
Democrats appear poised to make big gains, with President Trump and his party reeling from sticky inflation and an unpopular war with Iran. Republicans have lost ground with key groups of voters who helped power Trump to victory in 2024: Hispanics. Working-class white women. Gen Z men. And historically, the party controlling the White House tends to lose congressional seats during the midterms.
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more – straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice – straight to your e-mail.
Dems currently lead in the generic ballot, a rough measure of which party voters would prefer to control Congress, by about six points, on average. They should fairly easily retake the House, where Republicans are down to a six-seat advantage after deaths, resignations and special-election losses.
Expect Democrats to gain at least 20 seats, given the current political conditions, putting the party close to its recent high of 235 after the 2018 midterms. Future developments could change this outlook. Dems would score even more gains if the bottom dropped out of Trump’s polling. Republicans might see their turnout increase if a Supreme Court vacancy or some other event motivates conservatives. They also hope that persistent swing-voter suspicion of Dems works in their favor.
Redistricting will play less of a role in the results than initially expected. Democrats have all but erased Republicans’ early lead by creating more friendly seats, a tit-for-tat battle kicked off by Texas last summer. Florida’s new map could give the edge back to the GOP if it survives an inevitable lawsuit. Less clear is the near-term impact of a recent Supreme Court ruling that narrowed key provisions of the Voting Rights Act.
Senate Democrats have a real possibility of flipping at least three GOP seats. In North Carolina, Democrat Roy Cooper comfortably leads his Republican rival, Michael Whatley. Maine Republican Senator Susan Collins is in the political fight of her life. The Ohio race, pitting GOP Senator Jon Husted against former Senator Sherrod Brown (D), is a toss-up. Dems also are bullish about their chances of defeating Alaska GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan. Plus, Democratic candidates in key races are raising more cash than the Republicans.
The party needs to pick up at least four seats to gain control of the chamber, a tall order, given the rest of the Senate map. Republicans are defending more seats this year (22) than Democrats (13); however, all but one are in states that Trump won. By contrast, Dems are defending two seats in states that Trump won: Georgia and Michigan.
The odds still favor Republicans maintaining control of the upper chamber.
Whatever the results, expect the current gridlock in Washington to get worse. By controlling just one chamber of Congress, Democrats will effectively have a veto over future Trump legislative priorities and more opportunities to conduct oversight.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.